Determining Real

Determining Real is an important step in trying to find the difference between truth and fiction. It is far too easy these days to be led into thinking that fiction is true. What can we do to combat that?

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The Reality Heuristic: A method to help us in determining real

1) The world is actually quite well known

  • We live in locally – now and here. The further away in time, space and scale, the less it is important to your life.
  • Objective Reality, what we all base our perception on
  • Consensus Reality, what we agree is true
  • Personal Reality, what you experience

2) The Null Hypothesis

  • When a thing contradicts what you expect, it is more likely to not be true than it is to be true
  • Check for evidence it isn’t true first, then check for evidence that it is, weigh the evidence

3) Average is King

  • Non-average is suspicious, understand the normal distribution curve
  • Beware of confirmation bias

4) Occam’s Razor and Einstein’s Warning

  • The simplest and most complete answer is usually the best one
  • Simplest, but no simpler

5) George Box: Essentially all models are wrong, but some are useful

  • A model is useful if its predictions are good and accurate enough
  • No model is perfect
  • Discard bad models

6) Carl Sagan: Extraordinary Claims require Extraordinary Evidence

  • The burden of proof is on the claimant
  • Scientific Consensus is most often correct

7) The World is Already Amazing

  • Without having to add magic

8) Know your Cognitive Fallacies

  • Common Logical Fallacies used to further bad arguments
  • Common Cognitive Biases we are fooled by

LINK For the full explanation of each of these and more pointers